The US Overseas Voter - Finally Getting Some Respect?

I've posted a lot recently on the US election and for those of you who could care less I promise to get back to writing about other things soonest.  Yes, all you Clinton/Sanders/Trump supporters, there are other things going on in the world that are just as (if not more) important as one election in one country which is not even the country most of us are living in, right?

But I did want to note that US overseas voters have been in the news recently and there are some good articles out there that explain why the homeland candidates and voters should pay attention to US citizens living in one or more of the other 190+ nation-states around the world.  Because in some very close races, overseas voters have managed to push a candidate over the top which has led to some very unexpected election results.

Exhibit A is the election in 2000 between George Bush and Al Gore. Aside from all the controversy over the validity of certain ballots, overseas ballots handed the victory to George Bush in Florida which meant a Bush presidency.  And for those of you who are under the illusion that overseas voters are almost always Democrats, well, where is the data that confirm that?  If you live in a country like France where Democrats abroad is very active, you might have that impression but go to countries in Asia and the picture looks very different.  How many Democrats versus Republicans are there in Singapore, for example, or Tokyo?  Even the conventional wisdom that says overseas civilians are Democrats and overseas military are Republican is questionable.

Donald Inbody's research (Grand Army of the Republic or Grand Army of the Republicans) on the military vote showed that enlisted military voters (85% of the military) were "as likely as the general American population to identify with the Republican Party" and were  "half as likely as the general American population to identity with the Democratic Party";  but they were "about four times as likely as the general American population to report themselves as independent or as identifying with a party other than the Republican or Democratic party."

All this makes overseas voters something of a crapshoot for either party. No one knows what impact we will have, only that there will probably be an impact.

Here are some recent stories about overseas American voters in the press that were passed along to me via Facebook.  If you have more, let me know and I will add them.

Americans Abroad Walk into a Bar, and Vote (Michael Forsythe, New York Times):

"While most 'Super Tuesday' voters were still sleeping, voting in the presidential primaries was well underway. 

In Hong Kong."

America's Overseas Voters are Not Impressed (Therese Raphael, BloombergView):

"Though it is undersized (and voter turnout generally even lower than domestic turnout), the vote potential of Expat Man no longer draws dismissive sniggers. Delayed overseas ballots helped give the 2000 election to George W. Bush (an event that Democrats Abroad says led to a tripling in registrations). Voting from abroad also arguably affected other close election contests, including a 2009 New York Congressional race that gave a narrow victory to Democrat Scott Murphy and the 2008 Senate race in Minnesota in which a Republican incumbent, Norm Coleman, was defeated by a wafer-slim margin by Democratic challenger Al Franken."

How America's Overseas Voters Could Swing the 2016 Election (Jay Sexton, The Conversation)

"Anyone who’s sceptical about the impact of expat voters needs only to think back to the 2000 presidential election, when overseas ballots provided the push that finally put George W. Bush in the White House. As we write in our report, had that election been decided on the ballots that arrived by the 26 November deadline, Al Gore would have won the state of Florida, and therefore the presidential election, by 202 votes."

Some of the first to vote on Super Tuesday were U.S. expatriates in 41 foreign countries (Karla Adam, Washington Post)

"Mike Heffron, a spokesman for Democrats Abroad based in Canberra, Australia, said that some expats prefer to vote in the “global primary” as a way to raise attention for issues that aren’t as important to their friends and family back home. 

A key concern for expats are tax laws, he said, which are thought to be a big reason behind the growing number of Americans renouncing their citizenship. Unlike most countries in the world, the United States imposes taxes based on citizenship, not residence."

Donald Trump - A View from Abroad

"But what I do argue is that recognizing them frankly for what they are would instantly and automatically dissipate the indignation caused by their present abominations, and that the disappearance of this indignation would promote the public contentment and happiness. Under my scheme there would be no more false assumptions and no more false hopes, and hence no more painful surprises, no more bitter resentment of fraud, no more despair.

Politicians, in so far as they remained necessary, would be kept at work - but not with any insane notion that they were archangels."

H.L. Mencken essay on Being an American

There are these moments in every migration journey when an American expatriate looks at her country of origin from abroad and has this queer feeling that she no longer recognizes the place. Detached from the taken-for-grantedness of the American life and swimming in very different cultural and political waters, many things in the homeland now strike her as bizarre, even frightening.

Bizarre is exactly the word I would use describe the Donald Trump campaign.  In some ways it's pure entertainment.  Trump is genuinely funny and so off the wall that people all around the world are mesmerized by his antics. 

If you don't care much for politicians his humiliation of the Republican establishment (and his potential for pulling the same trick on the Democrat candidate) will make you cackle with glee. About time someone pulled back the veneer of respectability and highmindness and revealed the US presidential race for what it is: a dance of hypocrites and liars.  The tragedy of every election is that people have such hope that this time things will be different and Something Will be Done.  These hopes are almost inevitably dashed when the candidate takes office and goes about the messy business of actually running the country.   

That said, is Trump the Republican candidate good or bad for Americans abroad?  On the balance, putting aside my amusement and looking at it very coldly, I think it's bad for us.  I speak only for myself but the two things I really care about in this election are:  FATCA/CBT and US foreign policy.  Diaspora, not national issues.  My take, for example, on a hot domestic topic like immigration comes from my experience as an American emigrant. Frankly, I don't see what the fuss is about back in the Old Country.  And having to listen for years to the anti-immigrant rhetoric in my host country (France),  these days I really don't have much patience for it anywhere.

Concerning Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) and citizenship-based taxation, I do not see a statement by Trump anywhere about where he stands on FATCA repeal or mitigation, or what he thinks about moving to a residence-based tax system.   The Republican party establishment has made efforts to address the concerns of Americans abroad.  There is a lawsuit (FATCA Legal Action) and calls to repeal the law by Republican lawmakers.  All things that I want to hear in 2016.  But Trump as candidate threatens to undo all that good work because he's running against the establishment, the very people who are ostensibly on our side.

As for foreign policy, as an American abroad I remember what it was like to have a US president who was viewed with contempt internationally and considered to be a blustering incompetent fool. American homelanders can dismiss this with a sniff and a refusal to watch or read the international media.  However, when you are living outside the US it is an extremely unpleasant experience that one can't escape so easily - not when these things are being discussed at work, at the local bar, or at home over dinner.  That the nationals in the host country dislike your president is one thing, that they think he is a figure of fun and not to be taken seriously is another.  Trump is already all of those things and he hasn't even been nominated, yet. 

The wonderful thing about Trump is that he reveals the farce that is the US presidential race, and invites us to see it as a comedy.  On some level we are all enjoying the show.  However, the fun ends when one realizes that supporting him is really not in one's best interests.  That is the conclusion I've come to:  I think Trump would be disaster for me and my fellow Americans abroad and it frightens me to think that he might have a chance.  

As for the homelanders, I don't think he's good for them either.  His supporters are making the same mistake that Mencken wrote about in 1922;  they confuse him with an archangel, and they are making false assumptions and raising false hopes. Trump is now a politician which means that one day he will inevitably disappoint even the most ardent of his supporters. 

No, homelanders, Mexico won't pay for the wall, 

Democrats Abroad Town Hall

Late last month Democrats Abroad held a Global Town Hall with former Secretary of State Madelaine Albright speaking for the Hilary Clinton campaign, and Bernie Sanders speaking for himself directly to Americans abroad.  Have a listen and add what they had to say to your reflections on the US presidential race.

I've posted a great deal about the activities of Democrats Abroad recently.  That's because they have put together some very useful and interesting material that is easy to share with others on-line.  I would be more than happy to do the same for the Republican side.  So all you Republican Overseas out there, let me know what you've got and I will include it.

For the record I have a a Menckenesque take on all politicians.  I believe in keeping them employed (and in their place) but I don't trust them very much and if it were up to me I'd like to see every indignity that is inflicted on the American worker applied to them:  cameras in the workplace, access to their email, and regular drug tests.

Enjoy the videos and leave a comment if you feel inspired.

Democrats Abroad Interview The Presidential Candidates

Democrats Abroad was one step ahead of me.  Just a few short hours after I posted last week  asking when the US presidential candidates would speak directly about the issues facing Americans abroad, Dems abroad sent me a tweet and said, "We're on it."

Our Candidates Weigh In On Americans Abroad Issues is a Q & A with Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Rocky de la Fuente.

Democrats asked all the right questions about CBT vs. RBT, Medicare, Social Security, FBAR, the Same Country Exception, passport revocations (2015 FAST Act) and the Commission on Americans Living Abroad Act. I was fascinated by the answers.

What do I hear in the candidates' responses?  A balancing act between the interests of Americans abroad and homelander concerns. Note how both Clinton and Sanders talk about the tax cheats, corporate tax avoidance, and rich Americans emigrating and taking their money with them, and then they assure Americans abroad that they aren't talking about them.

Are we reassured?  I think we'd all like to be and yet so many of the issues we are facing today came from this desire to respond to homelander concerns and punish those traitorous tax evaders, with Americans in the homeland applauding the effort.  Have they learned that they need to tread a bit more carefully around the casualties (8 million Americans abroad) of the regulatory acid rain falling indiscriminately on the just and the unjust alike?  Or, once elected, will they continue to sin first and then ask for our forgiveness in the next election?

I thank Democrats Abroad for their efforts. Well done.  The candidates listened and answered.  I hope that all of you read the interviews and follow up with emails.  If they said something you liked, tell them so.  Ditto if they said something you didn't like.

The conversation has begun and the ball is in our court now.

An American Abroad Looks at the US Presidential Race

Do home country national elections matter to emigrants/expatriates who live outside their countries of citizenship?

Some countries allow their diasporas to vote in national and even local elections.  The French abroad, for example, can vote in French elections from their host countries, and Article 24 of the 1958 Constitution establishes the right of the French living outside of France to have direct representatives in the French Senate.

Having the franchise, however, does not guarantee that any national community abroad will exercise it.  Mexicans abroad have had the right to vote in Mexico since 2005 and there are millions of Mexican citizens all over the world.  But as of 2012 there were only 61,000 absentee ballots requested from over 100 countries.

So it's not enough to simply have the franchise in the home country, migrants/expatriates must also have the means to exercise that right and, I argue, a good reason to do so.  Motivation really matters here.  If there are no compelling issues that stir interest in a community abroad then they won't bother to register or send in their ballots.

With that in mind, let's look at the US presidential elections.  In the latter part of the 20th century Americans abroad gained the right to vote with the Overseas Citizens Voting Rights Act of 1975 and  The Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA) passed in 1986.  Since that time the two major political parties in the US have worked to encourage voter participation in the US communities living outside the United States.

But as Dr. Claire Smith showed in her 2010 article for the Overseas Vote Foundation, only 374,955 civilians requested ballots from abroad for the 2008 elections and only 59.2% of those ballots were actually submitted.  Problems with the voting process?  Absolutely.  And yet the number of overseas citizens who tried to vote was not that high to begin with given that there are, according to the US State Department, around 7 million US citizens living abroad.

Why might that change in 2016?  I would argue that Americans abroad do have a keen interest in this election - a personal dog in this fight that might encourage Americans abroad to vote in higher number than in the past.

The issues are the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act and citizenship-based taxation - a deadly combination that is wreaking havoc in American communities all over the world.  FATCA  was passed in 2010 and requires banks in the host countries to report the accounts of US citizens and US Persons to the US government which has led banks in the host countries to close the personal accounts (checking, savings and retirement) of many Americans abroad, and declare all Americans persona non grata at their banks.

Citizenship-based taxation, US law that says that the incomes of US citizens/US Persons earned outside the United States are taxable by the United States government, has been around for many years but was not enforced until very recently (about 2008).

Americans abroad are not only furiously angry and deeply bitter about what they see as the hostile acts of their home country government, but some feel they have no choice but to renounce their US citizenship. That is the reason that renunciations of US citizenship have soared in the past few years.

For many, if not most, Americans abroad these are THE issues that trump (no pun intended) everything else.  I call it the American Diaspora Tax War because I have never seen so much resentment and, strangely enough, solidarity on the part of Americans abroad.  This situation has united angry Americans from many different countries around the world against the anti-emigrant policies of the US government.

This is the prism through which I see the upcoming US presidential elections and I don't think I'm alone here.  The question, however, is whether or not  the candidates will speak to those issues.  To motivate Americans abroad to vote I think it is not enough for these issues to be mentioned as part of an overall party platform;  they need to be addressed by the candidates directly.

So far I am not seeing that.  Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have a lot to say about domestic issues - gun control, the national debt, immigration - but after parsing the Issues sections of their websites, I don't see anything that speaks even indirectly to FATCA and citizenship-based taxation, their impact on Americans abroad,  and what they plan to do about them.

The Democrats do at least nod in our direction and acknowledge our existence. Clinton has a special link for Americans abroad who want to contribute to her campaign.  Sanders talks about tax reform (the super wealthy, corporations, and the use of tax havens) but seems oblivious to the existence of middle-class Americans living abroad who might need a little tax justice, too.  (And I found that to be a real pity because I kind of like Sanders.)

Am I missing something here?  You tell me.  I invite the advocates of these candidates to come forward and direct me to whatever information is available that clarifies their position on what is happening to Americans abroad right now.

Do I and other Americans abroad care about the issues and the upcoming elections?  I can't speak for anyone but myself but my answer is:  Of course I do.  I have family in the US and things like gun control, healthcare, US immigration and the national debt impact the people I love.

That said, the only issues that have a direct impact on me are:   foreign policy (because when that goes badly, Americans abroad are on the front lines)  and US government policies toward its diaspora - the 7 million or so Americans living outside the United States.

If I believe that my issues are being ignored, or that candidates might actually make things worse for me and my compatriots abroad, not only will I not vote for those candidates, I probably won't vote at all.

Because the right to vote means nothing if you feel that the candidates aren't listening and that you don't have a voice deemed worthy of being heard.