Shooting Themselves in the Foot

I got this link through Just Me's excellent Twitter feed and I just have to pass it along right away with a few comments and a rant of my own.

It is a very angry letter from an American in Switzerland who has decided to pack it up and move back to Vermont.  In it you get a good feel for the collateral damage due to FATCA and what the U.S. is losing when they use a hacksaw instead of a scalpel in the war against tax evasion.

This fellow is an entrepreneur and has been in business abroad for 25 years "busting open nitch markets for American products, contributing to lowering the trade deficit, developing new markets for US producers, creating employment for my brethren back home, increasing the tax base where they live."

I'd say on the face of it this fellow is a true patriot who has done well by and for his country.

So why is he packing it in?  Well, rock shake hands with hard place.  FATCA has put him out of business.  His local bank has informed him that he can no longer make money transfer to the U.S.  They don't want the hassle of dealing with someone who has a U.S. connection - too much bureaucracy, too much paperwork, too much hassle.  This issue with his bank (local to him but one of those evil "foreign' banks according to the U.S.) means he can no longer pay his suppliers and that means that the fat lady has sung for him.

Not only is he shutting down his business but he's not exactly relocating it back to the U.S.  He plans to get out of the business entirely and do some farming back there in Vermont.  Good for him.  Hard to see how this is good for the U.S. though.  Just how many more gentlemen farmers does the U.S. really need right now?  Well, guess homelanders will be getting another one whether they like it or not.

I respect his decision to move back.  I would not make the same decision though every so often I have this fantasy of simply showing up back home and saying, "You want me home?  OK, here I am, folks."  Let's see, I have no job or health insurance in the U.S. and I'm undergoing treatment for cancer.  I'm sure the local county hospital (not to mention the good taxpayers of King County) would be thrilled to welcome  just one more indigent American in need of care who can't work right now.

Instead I am in France where I have been paying into the social security system for years.  The care is outstanding and I've been here long enough so that this is definitely "home" and I don't ever want to leave.   But now I find myself paying taxes to two countries (France and the U.S.) The former (France) I understand completely because this is where I live and work but the latter?  Makes no sense unless of course 1.  I decide tomorrow to go back and throw myself on the mercy of the American taxpayers and their social services network (such as it is and it ain't much compared to where I am) or 2.  I ask the French to send a partial bill to the U.S. for the cost of my care here.  I am a U.S. citizen after all and, damn it, I pay U.S. taxes so if you all are going to claim me for a share of my revenue earned entirely abroad (to the detriment of my host country's revenue base) than I'd say you all have an obligation to provide me with some benefits.  Covering a small percentage of the current bill which includes surgery, chemotherapy, radiation treatment and daily medication would be a good start.

As I said, it's a fantasy. :-)  

To all the homelanders who refuse to listen, to every American politician who won't even give us the time of day, to the Obama administration which appears to be the regime of the clueless, the situation is untenable, the unintended consequences of your laws are leading to all kinds of injustice, and you are doing yourselves enormous damage by turning loyal Americans abroad (who were doing a lot of quiet good on your behalf) into people who throw up their hands in utter disgust and write things like this:

These absolute black boot fools in DC are shooting themselves in the foot and biting the hand that feeds them.
Sure there were those evading taxes and there were many greedy bankers stumbling over themselves to help those evaders, but the numb nuts in Washington are ruining the lives of hundreds of thousands of innocent American citizens, and just spitting in the face of our allies, by strong arming them (Remember the Nazis?) to enforce US tax law, when they have nothing to do with the US tax system.

Gee, folks, is this really what you had in mind?

Migration in the Americas

Most migrants don't go very far from home.  Well, "far" is relative - someone from Vancouver, Canada who ends up in Mexico City, Mexico will certainly feel far from all that is familiar even though he has stayed on the same continent and didn't head for, say, Johannesburg, South Africa. The point is that if you look at migration around the world, you will find an awful lot of Europeans moving around Europe, Asians moving around Asia and Americans moving around the Americas.

That is just one of the conclusion of the 2012 report International Migration in the Americas:  Second Report of the Continuous Reporting System on International Migration in the Americas prepared by the Organization of American States, the OECD and the IDB (Inter-American Development Bank).  Lot of fascinating information in this report and it does a good job of balancing a broad perspective of migration in North, Central and South America and a closer view of migration in each country from the history of immigration/emigration to the legal framework around migration and acquisition of citizenship.

Watching the immigration debates in the Americas from Europe one thing that always strikes me is how limited these debates are.  North America is a perfect example of "can't see the forest for the trees."  Talk to almost any North American and one gets the impression that they think it's all about them and their laws and their borders and millions pounding at their doors desperate to get in and ruin it for the "natives" (who are in fact the sons and daughter of immigrants themselves for the most part).  When some of the U.S. presidential candidates started talking about electric fences I literally howled with laughter. A quick look at a map of North America and those huge borders with Canada and Mexico, not to mention two oceans, and all I can say is "Good luck with that fence, folks."  

A few facts  might lead saner minds to the conclusion that migration is not at all an issue limited to the U.S., it's a regional one and cooperation with one's neighbors and the sending countries might be a much better strategy if they really are serious about managing it better.   This report wouldn't be a bad place to start gathering some of those facts which just might inject a little fresh air and perspective into the debate.

A Regional Perspective:  Like almost every other part of the world migration in the Americas is mostly regional.  Have a look at Table 3 on page 12, Total immigration in the Americas, by continent of origin, 2010.  In almost every case the vast majority of migrants have simply moved from one country in the Americas to another:  Mexico 68%, Barbardos 80%, Argentina 95%.  Overall about 70% of the migration is regional with the rest of the world far far behind:  14% from Europe, 13% from Asia and 2% from Africa.

Canada and the U.S. are the exceptions.  Almost half of the immigration to those two countries comes from Asia.  The report says that even if unauthorized immigration were included in these figures, Asia would still come out on top.  Kinda makes you wonder how a fence is going to help here unless the U.S. plans to try to fence off the Pacific Ocean.  I wouldn't put it past them.

I was very surprised to see that European migration is still pretty strong in some countries in the Americas. They account for a large chunk of immigration (25-30%) in places like Brazil and Peru - less but still noteworthy in places like Canada and the U.S.

And the immigration from Africa?  Almost nonexistent.

But the biggest surprise for me was Figure 4 on page 14, Top ten countries of origin of international migrants, permanent and temporary, 2010.

Guess what country is consistently in the top ten (and almost always in the top 5) countries of origin?

The United States.

Here is U.S. emigration (Americans leaving the U.S.) in black and white.  The U.S. is the number one sending country in Belize, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico.  It is in the top 5 in Bolivia, Chile, Columbia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay


There is a lot we don't know about these American emigrants.  Are they mostly naturalized U.S. citizens who have returned to their countries of origin?  Are they the children of immigrants to the U.S. who went back to the ancestral homeland?  Or are they Americains de souche (not children of recent immigration)?  How many are duals?  How many vote in U.S. elections?  Are they "sojourners" or "settlers" (i.e. how long do they stay?)  Hard to know but the AARO estimates that there are nearly 2.6  million of them in the Western Hemisphere which means they account for about half of the estimated 6.3 million Americans abroad.  These numbers by the way do not include U.S. military and government personnel so the actual number of U.S. citizens in North and South America would be much higher if they were added in.

What about immigration from the Americas to other OECD countries?  Again some very interesting findings.  "The difficult economic conditions in Spain and the United States appear to have had the effect of redirecting some of the migration flows to other parts of the OECD.  Emigration to other OECD countries outside of Europe has risen by 8% and to other countries of Europe by about 14%."
The report also notes in passing that "a significant fraction of it concerns citizens of the United States, for whom difficult conditions in that country may be leading to more expatriation."  This supports the suspicion that many of us have that U.S. emigration is increasing however the report does not go into this in any detail.  I went to Part III of the report which has a country by country perspective and the U.S. summary is not there even though the Table of Contents says that it can be found on page 218.  A mystery.

Concerning immigration from the Americas to Europe the report says that while Central Americans generally migrate to the U.S., South Americans, in particular those from the Andean region and the Southern Cone, tend to go to Europe with most going to Spain.  "In 2010-2011 56% of
emigrants from the Andean region and 65% of emigrants from the Southern Cone lived in Europe."  This seems to be a fairly recent phenomenon:  "Between 58% to 67% of the emigrants from Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil and Uruguay arrived in Europe between 2000 and 2010."  That is to say, in the last decade.

This migration flow from the Americas to Europe also contains a fair number of entrepreneurs from both North and South America.

Migrants from the United States represented the first community of entrepreneurs from the Americas in European countries, with the exception of Spain where Argentineans are the first community. Not surprisingly, the United States was the country harboring most entrepreneurs from the Americas, generally followed by Spain. The only exceptions were Argentine and Uruguayan entrepreneurs for whom Spain was the first country of residence, Canadian and Jamaican entrepreneurs for whom the second country of importance was the United Kingdom, and Haitian entrepreneurs for whom the second country was France. Entrepreneurs from the United States were mainly based in the United Kingdom and in Italy. 

The income distribution of migrants from the Americas to Europe is interesting.  In general they do fall into the lower income end of the spectrum but there are notable exceptions to this.  Canadians and Americans tend to fall into the upper income quintiles with Argentina, Costa Rica, Dominica, Panama and Venezuela among the top earners (top 20%).  "Almost one third of Canadian emigrants in the United States and in Europe were in the top income quintile of their country of destination."  You'd have to do a comparison between income in the home country and income in Europe to truly know if these Americans and Canadians have done much better for themselves economically because they migrated.  However I think I'm safe saying that most Americans or Canadians moving to Europe stand a very good chance of doing at least as well (if not better) than they did in the U.S. or Canada.


Country Perspective:  Part III of the report contains short summaries of each country's migration situation.  Let's look at two:  Belize and Ecuador.

Belize:  "Belize is the only country in Central America where English is the official language."  I had no idea that that was case until I started reading.  This is a very small country with about 320,000 people of which over 14% are foreigners.  The history of that immigration is fascinating. At one point most if it was from other countries in the Americas (and a lot of it was unauthorized) and that is still true. However in the 1990's there was an influx of Asian immigrants (Chinese) in response to a Citizenship Investment Program - for 25,000 USD immigrants could get permanent residency.

That program is now defunct but there are others that are still around.  For individuals over 45 years of age there is a Retired persons Incentive Program.  To qualify "applicants must receive a monthly
income of not less than U.S. dollars of $2,000 through a pension or annuity that has been generated
outside of Belize. A Qualified Retired Person shall be exempt from the payment of all taxes and duties on all income or receipts, which accrue to him or her from a source outside of Belize whether
that income is generated from work performed or from an investment."  

Emigration from Belize was very high but seems to have stabilized.  Index Mundi report a zero net migration rate in 2012 which means that migrant inflows and outflows are about equal right now.

2010 Top 5 sending countries to Belize are (in order of importance):  U.S., Guatemala, Haiti, El Salvador and  Nigeria.

Ecuador:  Another former colony and a veritable hotbed of immigration/emigration over the years.  One of the more interesting flows in were the "Lebanese."  These migrants came in the late 19th/early 20th century and they were Syrian, Palestinian, or Lebanese (Arabic speakers).  Emigration started in the 20th century with the rich sending their children off to school abroad.  Up until the 1920's the main destination was France.  Europe is still a primary destination with strong migration networks between Ecuador  and Spain.  Up until 2003 Ecuadorians didn't need a visa to enter the country and many took advantage of that.  Immigration to Europe is still strong however with many heading for Spain, Italy and other EU countries.

Like Belize a lot of the immigration is from other countries in the region.  There was a large influx at one point from Peru and Columbia.  Much of this immigration was and is unauthorized.  Other groups of note are the Chinese, Americans and Cubans who come for business or retirement.

Index Mundi's 2012 net migration estimate is -0.39 migrant(s)/1,000 population which means that about the same number coming in as are going out.

2010 Top 5 sending countries to Ecuador are (in order of importance): Columbia, Cuba, U.S., Peru and Chile.

This is getting way too long so I'll stop there.  There is however so much more in the report - I did my best to give you the highlights but I'm sure I didn't do it justice - and it really merits a closer reading.  If you are just delving into the topic of immigration in and from the Americas, this is a great place to begin your research.  Enjoy.

Les Bricoleurs du Dimanche

Last weekend we went off to the hardware/home improvement mecca, Leroy Merlin, to get some plumbing supplies and to return a chainsaw we purchased last month in a fit of new homeowner insanity.  As we waited at the counter my eye was drawn to a bright yellow flyer, "Rejoignez les bricoleurs du dimanche..." (Join the Sunday Do-It-Yourself-ers).  At first I thought it was an advertisement for a workshop for those amateurs nutty enough to think they can actually do plumbing as well as a professional.  But then I read the entire brochure and my jaw just about hit the floor.  Here's what it said:

"Nous combattons pour la liberté de travailler le dimanche."  (We are fighting for the right to work on Sunday). 

Car ce jour la, nous améliorons notre quotidien et celui de nos clients, auprès de nous, les jeunes font leurs premiers pas dans la vie active. (Because that day we improve our daily life and that of our clients - with us, the young take their first steps toward a working life.)

Nous voulons que la loi change et que le gouvernement nous permettre de pouvoir enfin dire "YES WEEKEND" (We want the law changed and the government to allow us to finally say "YES WEEKEND").

The pamphlet was signed by Le Collectif des bricoleurs du dimanche.  Who are these folks?  They are the Ile-de-France employees of two hardware stores, Leroy Merlin and Castorama (for you North American readers these are the equivalent of Home Depot).  French law for the most part forbids "le travail dominical" (work on Sunday).  There are some exceptions to this - restaurants, for example, or places that serve tourists or the media - but it was, until relatively recently, pretty universally respected and most stores were indeed closed on Sunday.  In recent times this has changed.  I've watched this evolution with more and more stores (especially the big chains) trying to stay open the entire weekend and many of them succeeding.

But the law is the law and the French government does crack down from time to time and that is exactly what happened to Bricorama.    They took it to court and lost and now they are calling for the law to be changed.  Bricorama's management argues that it wasn't fair that they be singled out and that being open on Sunday is actually in the best interest of everyone:  clients and employees.  To be clear, they and the other stores cannot and do not force anyone to work on Sunday.  The company has to ask for volunteers and they either get time off or extra money if they do put in the hours on that day.

This appears to be a unique situation where management and the employees are in agreement and so the employees decided to organize on their side to try to get the law changed.  And that was how the movement, Le Collectif des bricoleurs du dimanche, was born.   They are well organized - they have a Facebook page, they have pamphlets in the stores and they have produced a number of videos in support of their cause.  Here is one with testimonials from clients:


Le Collectif des Bricoleurs du Dimanche : le 9... par dm_50c5c5c37fbcb

Not everyone agrees that this is a good idea.  The CGT has a good tract here and they point out that the right not to work on the weekend was one that workers had to fight like the devil for in the last century. "En généralisant le travail du dimanche, c’est le libéralisme et le tout à la consommation qui priment au détriment des valeurs fondant notre société." (Universalizing work on Sunday is liberalism and all things for consumerism which rules to the detriment of the fundamental values of our society."  They argue that this "volunteerism" is a lie and that the big stores will use it to pressure employees to work weekends and more and more hours to their benefit and not at all for the good of the employees.

I see their point.  I worked in IT here for many years and attest to the fact that management quite often does just that - put pressure on IT workers to get something done over the weekend so that it's ready for Monday.  Easy to do when the work can be done remotely from home and the company risks nothing since work inspectors don't generally invade people's homes on Sunday to catch them finishing up a project. Much harder to pull off this kind of thing when it's a brick and mortar store where people have to be physically present to serve clients and the company can be caught and sanctioned.  So the question for me is:  Do we really want to give management a green light to generalize work on Sunday?

That's a tough question.  This is the 21st century and not the 20th.  Clients naturally like having more time on the weekend to do their shopping.  Employees like the idea of earning another day off  and of making a little extra money.  Companies want the business which is not a crime last time I looked.  Is it really so hard to consider that this might be a win-win for all parties?

So I'm inclined to come down on the side of the Collectif on this one.  I think the ultimate answer lies in keeping it exceptional, making companies pay for the privilege and ensuring that it's always a good deal for the employees.  The job of the union should be to make 100% that people are not being implicitly or explicitly pressured to "volunteer" when they would rather be with their families.  

I will add however that I am a bit amused that we are talking specifically here about not just any day of the week, but Sunday in particular.  I would never be a volunteer for "le travail dominical" simply because my Sunday's are already booked solid with Mass and a day of rest and reflection.  This is no longer the case for many (if not most) and I have no quarrel with that or with them.    However I do think it is worth reflecting on the origins of this day Christians call "The Lord's Day," which has been turned to a more secular (but still worthy) purpose -  allowing hard-working people time to rest and to be with their families.  As Chesterton puts it, "And only when they made a holy day for God did they find they had made a holiday for men."

On Parole

After many months of treatment (surgery, chemo and radiotherapy) for breast cancer, the kind staff at the Centre René Huguenin  liberated me late December to enjoy the holidays.  This was not a "get out of jail free" card - it was more like a conditional parole.   I am no longer strictly speaking "sick" but I'm not "cured" either.  There is medicine to take every day.  I still feel some of the effects from the chemo - my joints ache some days like I have arthritis.  I'm also aware of a certain physical fragility.  I got sick with a cold this week and went downhill in a matter of hours.  Also when I work in the garden or around the house, I have to pay close attention to my energy level because I can unintentionally drive myself into a state of exhaustion all too quickly.  I've learned that when I start to get very cold, I need to stop writing checks my body can't cash, however deep I am in the flow of whatever project I'm undertaking at the moment.  It's very humbling.  Never have I had to discipline myself to take it easy.

That's the physical side of recovery but what about the psychological?  Oddly enough that's the hardest part.  The treatment is over for the time being and I feel like a marathon runner who after persisting and suffering to reach the finish line, gets there only to discover that there is no trophy, no prize, no cheering crowds.  Just a note that says, "Wait here for the next four months and we'll let you know if you "won" or if you have to start running again.

So the challenge right now is to keep myself busy mentally and physically while taking into account certain limitations.  Here are a few of the things I've been up to that seem to help.  I'm also open to suggestions - I had a pretty bad case of chemo brain so my creativity has been a bit limited.

Writing:  In addition to the blog I wrote an editorial that I submitted one of the major papers in the U.S. They did not run it but it was a great exercise.  A journalist I met on another site offered to help me and it was the first time I've ever worked with an editor.  What an experience.  Made me wish I had an editor for the Flophouse because what a difference it made.  We have not given up trying to get it published.   We'll see what happens.

Recovery:  The great thing about being a recovering alcoholic is that at the end of every day, whatever else happened or didn't happen, one can always say, "I didn't drink today."   And that's the foundation of everything.

Music:  Nothing like a little Bruce Springsteen to clear your head. I also found my classical music CD's during the move and I've been listening to one of my favorite composers, Arcangelo Corelli.  I'm particularly fond of his violin sonatas:



Friends:  I have friends from the clinic who are going through the same thing though we are all at different stages.  We talk and I can unload when I'm feeling low.  More importantly I can offer support in return.  In Gonzales' Deep Survival he talks about how people in a life threatening situation come out better (have a higher chance of survival)  if they can help others.  He's right.  Gives you purpose and something else to focus on.  Perfect example of how altruism is in your best interests and may even save your life.

Quilting:  I've been making quilts for years and I always have a project waiting for me in my sewing basket.  Nothing fancy here - they are made almost exclusively with scraps and old clothes.  My skill varies depending on the day.  Sometimes I can "match my points" just fine and some days not so much (il y a des jours avec et des jours sans).  Doesn't matter because the final result is always pleasing to the eye and has a practical purpose too - nothing like a quilt to keep you warm.  Here's a picture of the latest project.

Reading:  I always have a pile of books to read.  During treatment I  splurged and purchased some very expensive books.  One I recommend highly is Martin and Hailbronner's Rights and Duties of Dual Nationals.  Pricey but worth it.   Another good one is Clunan and Trunkunas' Ungoverned Spaces:  Alternatives to State Authority in and Era of Softened Sovereignty.  To be read along with anything by James C. Scott.  On the lighter side, I am a big fan of paranormal romance novels.  Right now I'm making my way through  Stacia Kane's Unholy Ghosts series.   Really fine series.

Two other activities worth noting that are a kind of "two for one":  I try to get some exercise every day weather permitting and I go to church.  Versailles has a lot of churches and several are within walking distance of my house.  During the week I go to mass at the gorgeous chapel of the Soeurs Servantes on the avenue de Paris.  Friday and Sunday I can be found at my parish church, Saint Elisabeth de Hongrie.

The decision to start going to a local church and to stop going into Paris for the English-language mass at St. Joseph's was a very hard one for me but it turned out to be the right one.  I could not have asked for a more welcoming parish.  When I walked in for the first time I was nervous and felt a bit awkward:  I didn't know anyone, I didn't look too good, I didn't know the responses in the mass in French and I was conscious of my very heavy American accent.  From the very first day I was met with acceptance, firm kindness and discretion - no one asked me what was wrong with me, they just let me know that I was very welcome and that they were there if I needed anything.  Since that first day I've gone to see the parish priest (a really amazing fellow - when I went up for Communion last Sunday he recognized me and used the English words "Body of Christ" which put a huge smile on my face).  I've also volunteered to do service and am coming to know more people in the parish as a result.  What a joy to be walking down the street in Versailles and to meet people I know through the church. We may live in a globalized world but we need the local too - a place where we are recognized, where we can smile at others and have them smile back, where we can experience someone's touch on the elbow or on the shoulder in quiet support.

When I was at that last appointment with my oncologist, I asked her what I should do in the months to come and she replied, "Reprenez votre vie." (Take up your life).  I understand what she wants me to do but I would counter that counsel with the great saying about not being able to step into the same river twice.  I'm not the person I was a year ago.  I don't feel the same way or want the same things.  The most radical change I think has been a kind of softening.  It's as if, for 47 years, I've had a kind of carapace (shell) around me that I erected for my own protection - to not feel too much or too deeply.  These days the shell has a lot of holes in it and that's a Good Thing. If "taking up my life" again means going back to what I was before then I want none of it even if it was more comfortable.  I don't even think it's possible.  Some mornings I wake up and I wish I knew if I was truly in remission and then I ask myself what in heaven's name would I do with this information?  Toughen up?  Crawl back into my shell?  Un-know everything I have learned about how uncertain life really is?   Seems wiser to simply go forward and see where it takes me.

Becoming intimate with the queasy feeling of being in the middle of nowhere only makes our hearts more tender.  when we are brave enough to stay in the middle, compassion arises spontaneously.  By not knowing, not hoping to know, and not acting like we know what is happening, we begin to access our inner strength.
Yes it seems reasonable to want some kind of relief.  If we can make the situation right or wrong, if we can pin it down in any way, then we are on familiar ground.  But something has shaken up our familiar patterns and frequently they no longer work.... The open-ended tender place is called bodhichitta.  Staying with it is what heals.  It allows us to let go of our self-importance.  It's how the warrior learns to love. 

Pema Chodron
The Places that Scare You

Flophouse Milestone

We have to stop meeting like this, dear readers.

Some time between Christmas and the first of the year the Flophouse reached 100,000 all time pageviews. The Flophouse has been around for about two years and I just checked and I've written well over 500 posts.  That set me back on my heels - I can't help but think that all those words might have added up to a book or two if I wasn't so lazy and disorganized.

100,000 pageviews is both reassuring and kind of scary.  It is nice to know that it's not just my mother reading.  It's a bit scary because I'm not quite sure how it happened.

There was never any grand design behind the Flophouse and there still isn't.  I literally ask the universe ever morning what I should write about and then I sit down and do it.  That's about it.  Apparently right now the universe wants me to talk a lot about FATCA/citizenship-based taxation.  Or maybe the universe just has a really twisted sense of humor.

I have readers.  What a concept and I still have some trouble wrapping my head around the idea.  I know some of you through your comments and others through your emails.  I wish I knew more of you better.  Regardless of how you came here and whether or not we've been formally introduced, I'd like to thank you all for coming here and reading.  I am so grateful that, given all the things that I'm sure you have to do every day, you choose to spend a few moments reading my musings.  I hope that whatever you are finding here keeps you coming back.  I give you my word that I will always do my best to make it worth your time.

Pax vobiscum.

Victoria

Brian Eno: Day of Light

To watch while you are sipping your morning coffee.  Highlighted yesterday by Open Culture, this is a "crowdsourced" short by Brian Eno.  The theme was "play of light" and Eno put the images he received from his fans together and set them to his music.  Beautiful.  Will put you in the right frame of mind to meet the day.

Is U.S. Emigration Changing?

Overseas Exile has a very good post up about U.S. emigration (Americans leaving the U.S.)  He is arguing that what was once a phenomenon almost entirely about "pull" (the attraction of other countries) it is now also about "push."

"Emigration for US expats used to be about adventure, love, or a new job abroad. More and more it seems to be about Americans trying to get out."

I think he's right though it is impossible to get any hard data about U.S. emigration because the U.S. doesn't  track it nor do they make any effort like the French have to learn more about its citizens living in other countries and their reasons for leaving and for staying abroad - the "sojourners" versus the "settlers."  There are more of the latter than Americans in the homeland would like to admit.

In addition the U.S. census does not include American civilians living abroad which means that the United States of America has no idea how many citizens it really has.

Finally in all my research I have only come across one serious study on recent American emigrants, Americans Abroad:  A Comparative Study of Emigrants from the United States by Dashefsky et al, which is a great read but since it was published in 1992, it is a bit outdated.

Nonetheless, if you live abroad for an extended period of time and you maintain some contact with places and institutions where the newly arrived American might show up,  you can get a feel for trends.

The adventurers are still around but these days you hear more and more about the "push" factors Overseas Exile talks about:  high unemployment, shrinking wages, bankruptcies, debt, and less upward mobility.  I would add to the list the search for a more family-friendly country (a safer place to raise kids  and better school systems), better social safety net,  and opportunity (often cited by those headed for Asia).

Should Americans in the homeland be worried about this?  That's not for me to say but I think it would be prudent of them to at least look into it.